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03 RISK · MIDTERM RISK · 2026 WINDOW

Midterm Risk Command Environment

Where the May–October midterm window stands into the November 3 vote. Refreshed every Friday after the close.

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01What it measures

Six risk channels across the 2026 midterm window: rates, energy, inflation, Fed and liquidity, breadth and crowding.

02Why it matters

Event windows concentrate risk; this tracks whether the index is paying for it into the vote.

03Current state

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04Direction

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05Portfolio implication

Model bias unavailable until a current reading loads

SEASONALEDGE MACRO COMMAND · MIDTERM RISK● CONNECTED
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METHOD

How to read it

The composite score is the average of the six risk channels in the stack; AI capex flow is shown as an offset and is not added in. The scorecard tracks the window from May 1. The playbook weights are model estimates of how the window resolves, not forecasts of price. The page is refreshed every Friday after the close, and the data stamp at the top of the environment shows which close you are looking at.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. See Disclosures.