02 LEADERSHIP · CONVICTION

Where is leadership concentrated?

Seventeen investment themes, read every US trading morning. Each theme’s leadership, its fit with the current risk regime and its trend confirmation combine into one conviction reading, shown beside the theme risk budget and the CORE4 risk regime.

LIVE DATA AS OF OCT 20, 2026 · 07:20 ET REFRESHED EACH TRADING MORNING

01What it measures

Leadership, regime fit and signal strength for seventeen investment themes, recomputed every US trading morning.

02Why it matters

It shows where leadership is concentrated now and how well it fits the current regime.

03Current state

Top themes: Financial Infrastructure, Software, Cybersecurity

04Direction

Risk capacity reduced: defensive

05Portfolio implication

Model regime Risk-Off · hedge mode energy

CORE4 · RISK REGIME

RISK-OFF

Defensive posture across the model stack

SEASON VS RISK REGIME →

THEME RISK BUDGET40/ 100The share of full risk the conviction model allows across themes. Set by this model, separately from the CORE4 posture.

AUTO REGIME RISK59.1/ 100Macro risk read from live growth, inflation and liquidity data.

COMPOSITE STRESS55.6/ 100Blended market stress across credit, volatility and breadth.

RISK CAPACITY

REDUCED: DEFENSIVE

HEDGE MODE

ENERGY

Conviction by theme

HIGH CONSTRUCTIVE NEUTRAL LOW

RANKTHEMECONVICTIONLEADERSHIPREGIME FITSIGNAL

LEADERSHIP

How strongly each theme is leading the broad market on rotation factors, scored 0 to 100 against its benchmark.

REGIME FIT

How well the theme’s drivers suit the current risk regime. A leader in the wrong regime reads lower.

SIGNAL

Trend and momentum confirmation on the theme itself. Conviction combines all three into one reading.

Model output for research and education. Themes are broad market groupings, not individual securities, and a reading is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or a forecast of returns. See Disclosures.